| Period | Cut $ | Primary Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 – Jan 12 | $35–212K | Minor DC transition cuts; supply healthy |
| Jan 19 | $577K | Early-year retailer reset cuts |
| Jan 26 ⚡ anomaly | $1.0M | Lume 3.6oz system/allocation anomaly — not a supply issue |
| Feb 2 – Mar 2 | $84–193K | Supply normalized; minor residual reset pressure |
| Mar 9 – Mar 23 | $272–324K | Elevated — Flamingo depilatory constraints + Harry's supply tightening |
| Mar 30 – Apr 13 | $74–198K | Supply recovery; low cut environment |
| Apr 20 | $242K | Lume/Mando raw material constraints emerging |
| Apr 27 – May 4 | $56–98K | Temporary relief; low cut weeks |
| May 11 – May 25 | $216–301K | Lume/Mando deodorant raw material delays + Flamingo Moisture+ hold + Harry's constraints |
| Jun 1 | $345K | Continued Lume/Mando network constraints; On-Time declined materially to 89.8% — D&D, Grocery, Walmart misses; escalated to RJW |
| Jun 8 (projected) | $376K* | Lume/Mando remain primary driver; retail order management plan in development to protect relationships and reduce chargeback exposure |
| Sold-To Party | Total Cut $ | Share | Trend |
|---|
| Brand | Risk | SKU / Issue | ETA / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry's | High | H'26 Extra AD 2-in-1 14oz US Raw material delay in April led to production delay. 42K units ETAs 6/16–6/18. | Available 6/19 |
| Harry's | High | H'25 Body Wash Solstice 18oz DTC Currently OOS on DTC. Units in transit. | ETA 6/13 → avail 6/15 |
| Harry's | High | H'26 2-in-1 Shampoo Wildlands 14oz US Raw material delay led to production delay. Supplier resumed; 33K ETA 6/17. | ETA 6/17 |
| Harry's | High | H'25 Hair Cream 5.1oz US Retail Raw material delay led to production delay. Supplier scheduling another batch; 33K units ETA 6/15. | ETA 6/15 |
| Harry's | High | H'26 Shave Cream 6oz Canada ISM transfer wiped majority of inventory. Cuts expected 5/25–7/6. | 25K ETA 7/10 |
| Harry's | Medium | H'26 Body Wash Wildlands 18oz US Retail 13K ETA 6/12. Risk partial cuts at RJW wk 6/8. 100K units ETA 6/12–6/16 from large production run. | Full recovery expected 6/15 |
| Harry's | Medium | Anaconda 5.1oz Face Wash 3CT Retail VAS kicked off; RJW working on kitting 500 units. | TBD |
| Harry's | Medium | H Face Lotion 1.7oz 2CT TGT Retail VAS kicked off; RJW working on kitting 500 units. | TBD |
| Harry's | Medium | H'25 Truman Value Pack G2++ Ember RTL Lean next 4 wks due to orange handle delay from Thailand. Next inbound to RJW 6/12. | Cuts not projected |
| Harry's | Medium | H'25 Shave Cream 2oz US Amazon Overperformance led to OOS on AMZ. Next production ongoing. | 25K ETA 7/1 |
| Harry's | Medium | H' Shave Cream 3.4oz CAN DTC Included in allergen IL update/overlabeling work stream. New artwork in development. May need kitting Canada shave sets with another product. | TBD |
| Harry's | Low | H'26 Eye Cream 0.5oz US All Channel Inbound on track; transitioning to new SKU. | ETA 7/6 |
| Harry's | Low | H'25 Hair Texturizing Putty 2.5oz CAN Retail Production wrapping up. 10K ETA 6/29. | Cuts not projected |
| Flamingo | High | F'25 Moisture+ Pack Fig US RTL Passed-inspection inventory received. Final inspection round scheduled 6/18. Failed inventory rework by 6/25; final reworks by 7/6. Inbound wk 7/13: 20K directly from supplier. | Ongoing through 7/13 |
| Flamingo | High | F'26 Handle Pink US RTL WMT ISM 46,400 units + increased demand. Cuts likely 2–3 wks July + 2–3 wks August. Partial air shipment ~40 pallets arrival wk 7/6; July production ~30 pallets arrival 8/3. | 8/3* (see notes) |
| Flamingo | High | F'Body Depilatory 200ML Retail + DTC Inbounds arriving week of 6/29. | ETA 6/29 |
| Flamingo | High | F'Recovery Serum 1.7floz US All Channel TTS + 18-week lead time → 8–12 week OOS period. Cuts across all channels. | Inbound tracking 8/10–8/15 |
| Flamingo | Medium | F'Shave Gel 1.0oz US Retail Meijer likely extended OOS early July as 1.0oz discontinued. | 2.0oz avail wk 6/8 |
| Flamingo | Low | F'DTC Matchbox – Lilac, Dolphin DTC Urgent transfer Legacy→Fosdick placed. Wk 6/5 demand ~2.5x forecast. Backlog risk orders placed 6/6–6/9. | ETA 6/10 |
| Flamingo | Low | F'26 Travel Razor Pack US Retail More Travel Razor Cases arriving RJW wk 6/8. Production throughout June to build WOH ahead of marketing ramp. | Cuts not projected |
| Mando | High | Mando Sweat Control Solid 2.6oz Mt. Fuji DTC + AMZ OOS at UPS — delayed production decision + raw material delays. | ETA mid-July (~7/15) |
| Mando | High | Mando Body Wash 8.5oz Pro Sport DTC + AMZ Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold; supplier implementing new cleaning procedure. Pending quality approval, production resumes wk of 7/6. | 25K ETA mid-August (~8/15) |
| Mando | High | Mando Solid Deo 2.6oz Mt. Fuji All Channel Constrained until wk 6/15. Production complete, units shipping next week. | Recovery 6/17 |
| Mando | High | Mando Solid Deo 2.6oz Cedar All Channel Constrained until wk 6/15. Production complete, units shipping next week. | Recovery 6/17 |
| Mando | Medium | Mando Solid Deo 2.6oz Bourbon All Channel Constrained until ~7/6 — raw material delay. OOS not projected. | Cuts not projected |
| Lume | High | Lume AP Solid 2.6oz Fresh Spring All Channel Constrained until mid-July — supplier raw material delay. OOS risk wks 6/8 – mid-July. | Until ~7/15 |
| Lume | High | Lume AP Solid 2.6oz Vanilla All Channel Constrained until mid-July. OOS risk at UPS wk 6/15 pending RJW-to-UPS transfer delivery. | Until ~7/15 |
| Lume | High | Lume Sweat Cream Tube 3.0oz Tangerine DTC + AMZ Constraint from supplier — orders 2 months past due. | Until ~7/20 |
| Lume | High | Lume Sweat Cream Tube 3.0oz Powder DTC + AMZ Constraint from supplier — orders 2 months past due. | Until ~7/20 |
| Lume | High | Body Wash 7oz Tangerine Retail Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold; supplier implementing new cleaning procedure. Pending QA approval, resumes wk of 7/6. 30K ETA 7/15. | Until ~7/28 |
| Lume | High | Body Wash 7oz Unscented Retail Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold; supplier implementing new cleaning procedure. Pending QA approval, resumes wk of 7/6. 56K ETA 7/20. | Until ~7/20 |
| Lume | High | Body Wash 7oz Lavender Retail Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold; supplier implementing new cleaning procedure. Pending QA approval, resumes wk of 7/6. 63K ETA 7/22. | Until ~7/22 |
| Lume | High | Body Wash 8.5oz Unscented DTC + AMZ Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold pending QA approval; resumes wk of 7/6. 50K ETA 7/22. | Until ~7/22 |
| Lume | High | Body Wash 8.5oz Lavender DTC + AMZ Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold pending QA approval; resumes wk of 7/6. 30K ETA 7/30. | Until ~7/30 |
| Lume | High | Body Wash 8.5oz Tangerine DTC + AMZ Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold pending QA approval; resumes wk of 7/6. 60K ETA 7/30. | Until ~7/30 |
| Lume | High | Solid Deo 2.6oz Minted All Channel Constrained until ~7/6 — supplier raw material delay. OOS risk wks 6/1–7/6. | Until ~7/6 |
| Lume | High | Solid Deo 2.6oz Powder All Channel Constrained until ~7/6 — supplier raw material delay. OOS risk wks 6/8–7/6. | Until ~7/6 |
| Lume | High | Lume Solid Deo 0.5oz Mini Powder Retail Units delivered to RJW; still constrained until ~7/6 — supplier raw material delay. | Until ~7/6 |
| Lume | High | Solid Deo 2.6oz Alpine DTC + AMZ Constrained until ~7/13 — supplier raw material delay. OOS risk at UPS wks 6/15–7/13. | Until ~7/13 |
| Lume | High | Solid Deo 2.6oz Vanilla Bliss All Channel Constrained until ~7/6 — supplier raw material delay. OOS risk wks 6/22–7/6. | Until ~7/6 |
| Lume | High | Solid Deo 2.6oz Coconut All Channel Constrained until ~7/6 — supplier raw material delay. OOS risk wks 6/29–7/6. | Until ~7/6 |
| Lume | High | Deo Cream 2.2oz Vanilla Bliss DTC + AMZ Currently OOS. Production scheduled 6/23 (30K units). | ETA 6/23 |
| Lume | High | Deo Cream 3.0oz Powder All Channel Currently OOS. 15K units in production. | Until ~6/22 |
| Lume | Medium | Body Wash 1.5oz Mini Lavender DTC + AMZ Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold pending QA approval; resumes wk of 7/6. 25K ETA 7/20. | Until ~7/20 |
| Lume | Medium | Body Wash 1.5oz Mini Peony DTC Most recent FGs failed micro. Production on hold pending QA approval; resumes wk of 7/6. 25K ETA 7/20. | Until ~7/20 |
| Lume | Medium | Solid Deo 2.6oz Unscented All Channel Constrained until ~7/6 — raw material delay. OOS not projected. | Cuts not projected |
| Lume | Medium | Deo Cream 2.2oz Coconut All Channel | Inbound on track 6/20 |
| Lume | Medium | Lume Deo Spray 3.6oz AF Unscented Retail Cuts expected wks 6/15–6/22. Transfer of 4,440 units arriving ~6/15. 30K replen arriving ~6/29. | Replen ~6/29–6/30 |
| Lume | Medium | Deo Cream 2.2oz Unscented Tube Retail 12K inbounding by end of next week [6/18]. | ETA 6/22 |
| Lume | Medium | Deo Cream 2.2oz Lavender All Channel 9,768 inbounding for DTC [6/25]; 4,320 for Amazon [6/25]. Additional 30K production 6/29 to reach 18 WOH aggregate. | ETA 6/18 |
| Lume | Medium | Deo Cream 3oz Tangerine DTC + AMZ Units expected to be released from supplier next week. | ETA 6/29 |
| Lume | Medium | Deo Cream 3oz Peony Retail Will transfer inventory from UPS to hold retail until next production 8/3. | Until ~7/15 |